Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 13.059381 15.275488 17.703372 20.553984 23.802191 27.380920 31.614839
2024-12-15 10.210109 13.238141 16.855961 21.468245 27.160235 33.920708 42.520721
2024-12-22 8.078354 11.449290 15.786184 21.709634 29.514029 39.361258 52.628170
2024-12-29 6.559403 10.058862 14.862538 21.824516 31.519612 44.384731 62.555185
2025-01-05 5.204960 8.594305 13.535359 21.095657 32.162772 47.521475 70.132293
2025-01-12 4.370608 7.713196 12.854585 21.105779 33.718938 51.908923 79.647463
2025-01-19 3.708018 6.966946 12.236904 21.074563 35.127906 56.109182 89.126674
2025-01-26 3.395207 6.735871 12.375942 22.195215 38.337623 63.145452 103.216115
2025-02-02 3.087903 6.455892 12.381355 23.069863 41.198260 69.818727 117.175738
2025-02-09 2.843371 6.245617 12.466614 24.063089 44.303581 77.053194 132.439660
2025-02-16 2.490358 5.764541 11.999490 24.027533 45.653699 81.539901 143.601034
2025-02-23 2.105435 5.149494 11.196937 23.283941 45.686686 83.827699 151.292774
2025-03-02 1.771359 4.588081 10.433932 22.548944 45.705890 86.161685 159.353060
2025-03-09 1.575981 4.297367 10.169273 22.732886 47.402313 91.476497 172.780579
2025-03-16 1.386203 3.982918 9.810179 22.683000 48.644319 96.063078 185.223667
2025-03-23 1.226455 3.709463 9.498548 22.687285 49.975196 100.876106 198.330237
2025-03-30 1.033235 3.309288 8.845114 21.890641 49.644886 102.606831 205.999580
2025-04-06 0.917138 3.090036 8.574638 21.884998 50.891581 107.333438 219.364399
2025-04-13 0.813886 2.884222 8.305297 21.846654 52.056350 111.961309 232.786959
2025-04-20 0.783232 2.885530 8.546767 23.000911 55.821677 121.834084 256.582347
2025-04-27 0.741615 2.845021 8.675992 23.902494 59.107846 130.947485 279.385566
2025-05-04 0.707956 2.822995 8.850065 24.926826 62.734810 140.935923 304.362013
2025-05-11 0.633907 2.651999 8.601526 24.890003 63.996404 146.220456 320.425496